Introduction: With the continuous development of domestic refining and chemical integration units in recent years, the downstream industry chain extends to the production of fine chemicals and high-end products. As one of the links, the industry development of acrylonitrile is gradually mature, and part of the backward production capacity is eliminated, but the pressure is also increasing under the mismatch of supply and demand.
In 2022, the acrylonitrile industry ushered in a capacity release cycle, with capacity growth exceeding 10% year on year and increasing supply pressure. At the same time, we see that due to the impact of the pandemic, the demand side is not satisfactory, the decline in the industry is leading, and bright spots are hard to find. At the beginning of January, the market price of acrylonitrile fell sharply. Due to poor shipment in the spot market, traders have been dumping goods at low prices, but the floor supply will continue to increase, and acrylonitrile has high profits. Downstream factories and traders believe that the acrylonitrile market still has room for decline, and the downstream do not buy down sentiment is obvious. As prices fall near the cost line, the decline is relatively slow. After the Spring Festival, raw propylene prices continue to increase, East China and North China several large acrylonitrile factory production, so stop falling and stabilize. Into March, acrylonitrile pressure rebound. Propylene market prices go up, cost pressure increases, some large factories to reduce production drives the field bullish atmosphere heating up, manufacturers synchronized up the offer. However, with the commissioning of Qixiang new device, some acrylonitrile factory maintenance device plan was postponed, and the repeated epidemic in China also led to the shipment limitation in some areas, the overall supply pressure was high, and the downstream construction was weak. Therefore, the market transaction center was stable and weakened, but the overall fluctuation was not large due to the pressure of raw material cost.
Until July, the acrylonitrile market entered a downward channel. As raw materials propylene and liquid ammonia fall, the cost of support is weak. Some acrylonitrile factory offers fell, weighing on market sentiment, with traders shipping at low prices, pressure from port areas and high factory inventories. As a result, spot market prices fell from 10,850 yuan/ton at the beginning of July to 8,500 yuan/ton at the end of the month. Due to the long-term loss of acrylonitrile factory, coupled with the downstream production reduction, the summer is also the industry off-season, so the acrylonitrile factory has centralized production reduction, some traders and downstream believe that the price is at a low point, then began to have bottom fishing action, the market finally stopped falling and rebounded. But things are not satisfactory, in the spot market rose 200 yuan/ton, did not continue to rise, but is back to calm, so that the atmosphere is not easy to set off, cool down again.
Post time: Sep-09-2022