Recently, the customs import and export data of March announced that China imported 8,660.53 tons of acrylonitrile in March 2022, up 6.37% from the previous month. In the first three months of 2022, the cumulative import volume was 34,657.92 tons, down 42.91% year-on-year. At the same time, China's acrylonitrile export in March 17303.54 tons, up 43.10% month on month. The cumulative export volume from January to March 2022 was 39,205.40 tons, up 13.33% year-on-year.
In 2022, the domestic acrylonitrile industry presents a surplus, and the surplus increases greatly after the concentrated release of production capacity. In the first quarter, the industry inventory also shows an upward trend. Therefore, the gradual decrease of import volume and the increase of export volume are the inevitable results of the change of domestic supply and demand pattern. However, from the perspective of the increase and decrease of import and export volume, the decline rate of import volume is still expected, but the growth of export volume is relatively slow. Production capacity is concentrated, global demand growth is slowing down, and at the current pace of export, domestic acrylonitrile surplus is difficult to digest smoothly, and the contradiction between supply and demand will gradually increase.
From January to March 2022, China's acrylonitrile imports are still mainly from Taiwan Province of China, South Korea, Japan and Thailand, and are still dominated by long-term contracts. The average import price of acrylonitrile in the first quarter was 1932 US dollars/ton, up 360 US dollars/ton year on year. Soaring international crude oil, raw materials propylene and liquid ammonia prices are the main factors driving the price of acrylonitrile on the outside plate.
In terms of exports, in the first quarter of 2022, China's acrylonitrile exports mainly flowed to South Korea, India and Thailand, with a small amount flowing to Brazil and Indonesia. On the one hand, the increase in exports is due to the collapse of prices in the Chinese market after oversupply, which is also competitive with ocean-going cargoes. On the other hand, tight balances and supply shortages in the U.S. and Europe in the first quarter, coupled with high raw material costs, reduced outflows. The average price of acrylonitrile export in the first quarter was 1765 USD/ton, significantly lower than the average price of import, up 168 USD/ton compared with last year.
Post time: Jan-03-2022