Guide LANGUAGE: IN June THE DOMESTIC ACETONITRILE MARKET PRICE CONTINUES TO FALL, THE WHOLE MONTH FALLS TO 4000 YUAN/TON. The acetonitrile market decline continues as supply continues to overhang and downstream demand remains weak.
Acetonitrile fell to its lowest price since 2018
As of June 30, the domestic acetonitrile market price fell to 13,500 yuan/ton level, down 9,000 yuan/ton from the beginning of the year, a decline of 40%. Looking back at five years of data, the current acetonitrile price is also at its lowest since September 2018. The average price of acetonitrile in the domestic market from January to June 2022 was 19,293 yuan/ton, down 6.25% year on year.
The price of acetonitrile fell sharply at the same time, the production profit of synthetic method is also significantly shrinking, as of the end of June, the production cost is 13000 yuan/ton, the profit space is few, and at the beginning of the synthetic method profit of more than 5000 yuan/ton. Product price decline is the main factor leading to the loss of synthetic enterprises, and the main raw material acetic acid price performance fell last year, the cost also showed a downward trend.
Rapid expansion of production capacity and oversupply aggravated
The main reason for the sharp drop in acetonitrile price was the oversupply in the industry. In 2021, the new units of by-production enterprises were put into production in a concentrated manner, including Lihuayi, Sirbon Phase III and Tianchen Qixiang, etc. A total of nearly 20,000 tons of acetonitrile production capacity was put into production. At the same time, Shandong Kunda synthesis plant was also successfully put into production. At present, the total domestic acetonitrile production capacity reached around 175,000 tons, an increase of nearly 30,000 tons compared with the end of 2021, an increase ratio of more than 20%. Domestic consumption is far less than 100, 000 tons, so there is a significant oversupply.
Downstream demand growth is slowing down spot export orders shrinking
In addition to the substantial increase in supply, this year domestic acetonitrile demand is also shrinking. Among them, the production of original pesticide in China from January to May was 1.078 million tons, which was basically flat compared with last year. It can be seen that the overall performance of January to April showed a downward trend, and the production rebounded in May. As the off-season enters from June to July, the production of pesticide is expected to continue to decline.
In addition to the weak performance of domestic demand, in recent years to drive acetonitrile prices, an important factor - export volume, also declined. After the breakthrough growth in 2019, the export volume of acetonitrile maintained the growth trend from 20 to 21 years, but during this period, the proportion of contract gradually increased, and the spot export order volume decreased. In addition, India, the largest importer of acetonitrile, has added an estimated 20,000 tons of synthetic acetonitrile production facilities since the second half of 2021, which has significantly reduced acetonitrile procurement. The shrinkage of export volume directly affects the digestion of domestic acetonitrile surplus resources.
After entering July, the domestic acetonitrile price will continue to bottom out, although the current price has fallen to the synthetic cost line near, synthetic enterprises have also reduced the construction, the overall opening rate is only around 40%, but the current industry surplus situation has not been improved. However, as the domestic acetonitrile price is about to refresh the record low again, or attract export orders and some domestic buying to follow.
Post time: Jun-03-2019