In the first half of 2022, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out in late February, the West continued to impose sanctions on Russia, the supply risk concerns continued to increase, and the supply side maintained tightening expectations. On the demand side, after the start of the summer travel peak in the United States, fuel demand continued to improve, and the interference of the epidemic on demand has been significantly weakened, so the price showed a significant increase in 2021, and Brent stood firm at the $100 mark.
1. styrene forecast:
In the second half of 2022, there is a high probability that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will turn around or even come to an end, and the geopolitical support may weaken. OPEC may maintain its strategy of increasing output, or even rule out a new one; The Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates in the second half of the year, amid lingering recession fears; There is also a chance that Iran will be lifted in the second half of this year. Therefore, in the second half of 2022, especially around autumn, we need to watch out for the intensification of downside risks. From the perspective of the second half of 2022, the overall price center of gravity may move down.
2.Butadiene forecast
In the second half of 2022, butadiene production capacity gradually increased, and geopolitical factors gradually faded, there is no lack of room for raw material prices to fall, cost support faded, affecting the butadiene supply side performance is weak. Although there are some downstream pre-investment plans on the demand side, most of them are based on butadiene downstream matching, and affected by the profit situation, the time of production and the degree of production release are uncertain. Under the influence of supply and demand fundamentals and macro factors, butadiene price performance is expected to fall in the second half of 2022, and the mainstream shock range will fall below 10,000 yuan.
3.Acrylonitrile forecast
In the second half of 2022, there will still be 590,000 tons of acrylonitrile new capacity planned to be put into production, mainly in the fourth quarter. The industry’s oversupply will continue to run through the market in the second half of the year, and the price will remain low and volatile, which is expected to hover around the cost line. Among them, the third quarter is expected to have a slight rebound after the bottom of the price, mainly due to the cost pressure from August to October is expected to increase the maintenance of domestic and foreign equipment, to alleviate the surplus situation. However, after the release of new production capacity, excess situation will be aggravated again, acrylonitrile prices are expected to continue to fall to the cost line. The price of acrylonitrile in the second half of the year is expected to fluctuate between 10000-11000 yuan/ton.
Post time: Aug-31-2022